GCC States' Import Demand: The Effects of Geopolitics
Prof. Nader Habibi Crown Paper 6, June 2011
In recent years, the high price of crude oil and natural gas has increased the purchasing power of oil-exporting Arab countries and indirectly non-oil-exporting Arab countries. As a result, the competition among industrial countries to export goods and services to these countries has intensified. The available data show that as the total volume of imports by most Arab countries has sharply increased in the past ten years, the relative market shares of their trade partners have not remained stable; rather, they have fluctuated over time, with some countries gaining market share at the expense of others. In this Crown Paper, Prof. Nader Habibi examines the market shares of the United States, Western Europe, Japan, and China in the import markets of six Arab oil-exporting countries that belong to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Through statistical analysis, Prof Habibi identifies trends and significant economic and geopolitical influences on the market share of each exporting country and region.