Eva Bellin
Myra and Robert Kraft Professor of Arab Politics at the Crown Center and the Department of Politics


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Lessons from the Jasmine and Nile Revolutions: Possibilities of Political Transformation in the Middle East?

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Prof. Eva Bellin
Middle East Brief 50, May 2011


The quick succession of the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia by the fall of Mubarak in Egypt raised the hope that a contagious wave of revolution might soon usher in democratic transition throughout the Middle East. In this Brief, through a close analysis of these two cases, Prof. Eva Bellin suggests a different scenario. She argues that these two uprisings were successful thanks to four key factors that are not easy to replicate in the Arab world as a whole: an emotional trigger, a sense of impunity, a professional military, and new social media. She concludes that while replication may not be easy, success can breed hope and optimism.

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