Crown Center for Middle East Studies

Middle East Brief 86 (Summary) — In the wake of the 2011 revolution, Egypt has experienced two radical transformations in its leadership and, correspondingly, in its foreign policy agenda. In this Brief, Abdel Monem Said Aly examines the foreign and national security policies of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi whose presidency he regards as the first in Egypt’s “post-revolutionary era.” The Brief begins by elaborating the constraints on the foreign policy agenda of Egypt’s first democratically elected president, Mohammad Morsi. It then provides an in-depth analysis of Egypt’s current foreign policy challenges and concludes by identifying six possible foreign policy directions Egypt may take under the Sisi presidency.

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Abdel Monem Said Aly, the Chairman of the Board, CEO, and Director of the Regional Center for Strategic Studies in Cairo. He is also the Chairman of Al-Masry Al-Youm, a leading Arabic language daily newspaper in Egypt, and a Senior Fellow at the Crown Center.

Middle East Brief 85 (Summary) — As the November 24 deadline for a comprehensive agreement between Iran and the P5+1 to resolve the nuclear conflict nears, analysts have become increasingly pessimistic about the prospects of reaching such an agreement. In this Brief, Seyedamir Hossein Mahdavi challenges this “common wisdom.” He compares the conditions surrounding the current nuclear negotiations to those prevailing in 1988 when Iran decided to accept UN resolution 598 that ended the Iran-Iraq war. Looking at the three dimensions common to the two decisions — the economic, the religious and the ideological — Mahdavi argues that there are important similarities between these sets of conditions. In turn, this leads to the conclusion that just as in 1988 when Iran's Leader drank a “cup of poison” by accepting a cease-fire with Iraq, his successor may well do the same by committing a “heroic” act and accepting a nuclear deal with the P5+1.

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Seyedamir Hossein Mahdavi, a former member of the Central Council of Mujahedin Inqilab, a reformist party in Iran. During his ten year career in journalism he was the editor of several dailies in Iran and in 2013-14 was a researcher at the Crown Center.

Middle East Brief 84 (Summary) — The uprisings that swept the Arab world in 2011-2012 were sparked by many catalysts. Not least among them was the desire to put an end to arbitrary rule and install what political analysts call “the rule of law.” For countries in the region that face the prospect of failed (or failing) states, such as Libya, Syria, and Iraq, the goal of building accountable governance is a luxury of secondary priority. But for other countries where the integrity of the state is not in doubt, building rule of law is a reasonable ambition. In this Brief, Eva Bellin examines the question of how the Arab world can achieve this objective and the specific challenges they face by drawing on the experience of other regions that have wrestled with this ambition. By focusing on four crucial institutions — the judiciary, the police, the military, and regulatory agencies — Prof. Bellin identifies some of the best practices and evaluates key obstacles to the reforms required.

This Brief is based on the introduction to the forthcoming book “Building Rule of Law in the Arab World,” edited by Eva Bellin and Heidi Lane.

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Eva Bellin, Myra and Robert Kraft Professor of Arab Politics at the Crown Center and the Department of Politics at Brandeis University.

Middle East Brief 83 (Summary) — The 2014 Gaza-Israel War has created an opportunity to launch a more stable paradigm between Gaza and Israel, and between Israelis and Palestinians more broadly. In this Brief, Shai Feldman and Khalil Shikaki present the elements required to transform a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas into a lasting de-escalation processes. First, all three principle parties will need to radically change their approach toward one another by prioritizing pragmatism. Second, the parties will need to support this pragmatic approach with specific policies aimed at facilitating the movement away from violence and destruction and toward greater accommodation. Without these changes, Israel and Hamas are bound to find themselves, sooner or later, in another round of deadly violence, to the detriment of innocent civilians on both sides.

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Shai Feldman, Judith and Sidney Swartz Director of the Crown Center.
Khalil Shikaki, Director of the Palestinian Center for Political and Survey Research in Ramallah and a Senior Fellow at the Crown Center.

Middle East Brief 82 (Summary) — On June 8, 2014 Field-Marshall Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was sworn in as Egypt’s fifth president amid monumental challenges to Egypt’s path towards democracy and economic prosperity. As a result, many commentators have already declared him as doomed to fail. In this Brief, Dr. Abdel Monem Said Aly attempts to decipher the meaning of Sisi’s ascent to Egypt’s presidency by describing the ways in which he is seen by different constituencies inside Egypt. The Brief also examines Sisi’s vision for Egypt’s future by assessing his liabilities and deficits when confronting the challenges facing his country, and by ascertaining his initial steps in office and their possible implications.

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Abdel Monem Said Aly, Chairman of the Board, CEO, and Director of the Regional Center for Strategic Studies in Cairo. He is also the Chairman of Al-Masry Al-Youm, a leading Arabic language daily newspaper in Egypt, and a Senior Fellow at the Crown Center.

Middle East Brief 81 (Summary) — For years, public discussions of Iran’s nuclear program and the negotiations surrounding it were considered to be off limits in the Iranian political sphere. But in recent months and as the negotiations with the P5+1 continue, not only have these discussions become a matter of public debate, they have realigned the political elite along a nuclear fault line. In this Brief, Seyedamir Hossein Mahdavi examines this new dialectic between Iran's foreign and domestic politics by identifying the two new power blocs — the “worried,” who oppose, and the “valiant,” who support the nuclear stance taken by the Rouhani administration. In doing so, he traces the roots of this political division back to the student protests of 1999 and follows the critical events since then that have shaped the current split. He concludes by analyzing Ayatollah Khamenei’s delicate balancing act as he supports both the “valiant” and the “worried” in a bid to pull Iran out of its current crisis, while maintaining his own power base.

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Seyedamir Hossein Mahdavi, former member of the Central Council of Mujahedin Inqilab, a reformist party in Iran, and on the editorial board of several reformist newspapers. He is currently a Research Assistant at the Crown Center.

Middle East Brief 80 (Summary) — Soon after his victory in the June 2013 election, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced that reforming and revitalizing Iran’s oil and gas sector would be one of his government’s top priorities. Since then Rouhani and his oil minister Bijan Namdar Zangeneh have launched a significant reform program aimed at reversing many of the policies instituted during Ahmadinejad’s presidential terms. In this Brief, Prof. Nader Habibi evaluates this reform program by analyzing the developments in Iran’s oil sector under Ahmadinejad, providing a detailed account of the reforms proposed and implemented by Rouhani, and ascertaining the possible challenges facing these reforms within the oil ministry and the broader political landscape.

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Nader Habibi, the Henry J. Leir Professor of the Economics of the Middle East at the Crown Center, Brandeis University.

Middle East Brief 79 (Summary) — Since the ousting of President Mohammad Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood regime on June 30, 2013, U.S.-Egypt relations have been on the worst negative trajectory seen since President Anwar Sadat reconciled with the United States nearly four decades ago. In this Brief, Dr. Abdel Monem Said Aly and Prof. Shai Feldman explore the growing rift between Washington and Cairo, rooted as it is in the very different manner in which the two have come to define the recent events experienced in Egypt and their competing narratives about these developments. They conclude by taking stock of the two countries' long-standing significance to each other, and suggest ways in which a major effort can be launched to “reset” their relations.

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Abdel Monem Said Aly, Chairman of the Board, CEO, and Director of the Regional Center for Strategic Studies in Cairo, Chairman of Al-Masry Al-Youm, and a Senior Fellow at the Crown Center.
Shai Feldman, Judith and Sidney Swartz Director of the Crown Center.

Middle East Brief 78 (Summary) — Since the battle of Qusayr and Hezbollah’s direct military involvement in the Syrian crisis, analysts have pondered whether Hezbollah’s actions resulted in a crisis of legitimacy for the party in Lebanon. In this Brief, Dr. Eric Lob argues that the roots of this crisis are multi-varied and date earlier than recent events suggest. Specifically, he explores the sources of the increasing discontent and criticism by analyzing the impact of Hezbollah’s costly foreign adventures against Israel, and its domestic governance deficiencies. In conclusion, Dr. Lob lays out the factors that will enable Hezbollah to remain a dominant actor in Lebanon and the region for the foreseeable future, despite its eroding legitimacy.

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Eric Lob, Junior Research Fellow at the Crown Center and holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Department of Near Eastern Studies.

Middle East Brief 77 (Summary) — Since the beginning of the Syrian uprising in March 2011, religion has occupied an increasingly central role in the opposition. In this Brief, Dr. Thomas Pierret explores the issue of sectarianism in Syria by analyzing the history of the relationship between the minority Alawite regime and two parts of the majority Sunni Islamic community: the Islamist opposition movements and the ulama (the learned religious elite). Dr. Pierret argues that while economic liberalization initially enabled the co-option of the Sunni ulama, the brutality of the regime in reaction to the ongoing uprising forced the ulama to realign itself toward the opposition.

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Thomas Pierret, Lecturer in Contemporary Islam at the University of Edinburgh. He earned his PhD in Political and Social Sciences at Sciences-Po Paris and the Catholic University of Louvain.

Middle East Brief 76 (Summary) — Has the Syrian civil war become also a Lebanese war? And if so, how long will it take before the country comes apart at the seams? In this Brief, Prof. Joseph Bahout explores how the Syrian crisis has escalated the Lebanese sectarian struggle and upset a precarious balance of power. In particular he examines Hezbollah’s decision to enter the Syrian civil war and the pivotal role this decision will have on the future of Lebanese politics.

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Joseph Bahout, Professor of Middle-Eastern Politics at Sciences-Po Paris and Senior Researcher at Académie Diplomatique Internationale. He also serves as a Permanent Consultant with the Policy Planning Unit of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs and is an Associate Fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security policy (GCSP).

Middle East Brief 75 (Summary) — Thirty-one months since the fall of Zine Abdine Ben Ali, how far has Tunisia progressed in the transition to democracy? The noise of the daily battles and aberrant acts of violence may obscure the country’s true political trajectory and generate discouragement about Tunisia’s future. However, some distance may provide a better perspective, revealing a surprisingly positive and encouraging trend line. In this Brief, Prof. Eva Bellin presents the six most salient factors shaping Tunisia’s democratic trajectory. She then presents the result of these “drivers” by providing a “net assessment” of Tunisia’s progress thus far. Prof. Bellin concludes by pointing out the challenges still facing the country’s march toward democracy and the factors which are likely to affect this march in the years ahead.

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Eva Bellin, Myra and Robert Kraft Professor of Arab Politics at the Crown Center and the Department of Politics at Brandeis University.

Middle East Brief 74 (Summary) — On June 14, 2013, Iran will hold its 11th presidential election to replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. During his two terms in office, Ahmadinejad implemented a number of broad economic reforms and policies that have had a profound effect on socioeconomic conditions in Iran. In this Brief, Prof. Nader Habibi explores Ahmadinejad’s eight year legacy by analyzing his economic ideas, political strategies and interactions with various centers of power. Prof. Habibi concludes that Ahmadinejad’s emphasis on economic justice and reduction of inequality, in addition to his expansion of the Revolutionary Guards’ role in the economy, is likely to have a long-term impact on the distribution of economic opportunities and efficiency in Iran.

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Nader Habibi, the Henry J. Leir Professor of the Economics of the Middle East at the Crown Center, Brandeis University.

Middle East Brief 73 (Summary) — Until recently, little attention has been paid to the upcoming June 14 presidential election in Iran. Citing the 2009 election and its violent aftermath, many Iranians came to believe that a regime that is capable of changing the result of an election according to its own will, would do the same in future elections as well, making them ceremonial at best. In this Brief, Seyedamir Hossein Mahdavi argues that it may not be so simple. The power struggle inside the regime, impact of sanctions on people’s daily lives, and domestic and foreign crises have made the 2013 election meaningful, crucial, and unpredictable. To this end, this Brief lays out the five main factions that will be important players in this election and concludes that, ironically, the current situation in Iran may lead to a “healthy” election, which in turn may signal the return of the reformists to power.

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Seyedamir Hossein Mahdavi was a member of the Central Council of Mujahedin Inqilab, a reformist party in Iran, and on the editorial board of several reformist newspapers. He is currently an MA student in the Coexistence and Conflict program at the Heller School for Social Policy and Management at Brandeis University.

Middle East Brief 72 (Summary) — The Jordanian monarchy is going through one of its most difficult periods ever. The Arab Spring has emboldened the opposition by eroding the deterrent effect of the notorious “fear of government” (haybat al-sulta) in the Arab world in general and in Jordan in particular. Additionally, economic stagnation and austerity measures driven by the International Monetary Fund have led to unprecedented discontent among the regime’s traditionally loyal East Banker elite and tribal base. In this Brief, Prof. Asher Susser analyzes the various factors that have led to the current crisis engulfing the Jordanian monarchy. However, he concludes by cautioning that the lack of a viable alternative to the Monarchy makes the situation in Jordan, though tenuous, manageable for the time being.

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Asher Susser, the Stanley and Ilene Gold Senior Fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University. In the years 2007-2008 and 2009-2010, he was a Senior Fellow on the Myra and Robert Kraft Chair in Arab Politics at the Crown Center.

Middle East Brief 71 (Summary) — In Iran, the 2011 Arab Spring was hailed as an “Islamic Awakening” based on its own Islamic revolution in 1979. In this Brief, Dr. Payam Mohseni focuses on the Iranian conceptualization of this “Islamic Awakening” and the domestic ideological context in which it took shape. Dr. Mohseni further contextualizes Iran’s narrative of the Islamic Awakening from two different perspectives: the soft war and the Islamization of the social sciences. The Brief concludes with a discussion of the political ramifications that the discourse of the Islamic Awakening holds for the regime.

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Payam Mohseni, Junior Research Fellow at the Crown Center, holds a Ph.D. from Georgetown University’s Department of Government and is a member of the Iran Study Group at the United States Institute of Peace.

Middle East Brief 70 (Summary) — To what extent has the transitional period —from the trial of Hosni Mubarak in August 2011 to the civil disobedience seen in the city of Port Said in Winter 2012 — moved Egypt closer toward a democratic system of governance? In this Brief, Dr. Abdel Monem Said Aly and Karim Elkady provide a net assessment of the positive, the negative and the unpleasant developments of Egypt’s political transition. They argue that while Egyptian politics has experienced a number of positive developments, the transition is also associated with some very negative or simply unpleasant manifestations, that obstruct Egypt’s path to democracy. They conclude that the interactions between these developments make it nearly impossible to predict the end-state of Egypt’s political transition.

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Abdel Monem Said Aly, Chairman, CEO and Director of The Regional Center for Strategic Studies (RCSS) in Cairo, and Senior Research Fellow at the Crown Center.
Karim Elkady, PhD candidate in the Politics Department at Brandeis University and the Crown Center.

Middle East Brief 69 (Summary) — One of the mainstays of Turkey’s governments throughout its modern history has been a dogged secularism. However, in recent years the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), while still paying lip service to secular tenets, has churned out a stream of laws and injunctions that, taken together, amount to a radical transformation of Turkey’s public sphere. In this Brief, Prof. Dror Ze’evi assesses these changes and examines their implications for Turkey today. It begins with the trajectory that the AKP has followed from its ascent to power to the present, surveying the transformations that are already in place and those that are in the planning stages. It concludes with an evaluation of the present state of affairs—and of the direction Turkey may take in the future.

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Dror Ze’evi, Professor of Turkish and Ottoman History in the Department of Middle East Studies, Ben-Gurion University.

Middle East Brief 68 (Summary) — The first elections in post-revolutionary Egypt brought into being a parliamentary majority dominated by Islamist parties and a new constitutional assembly also dominated by Islamist leaning members. Although the constitution is still being written, a preliminary draft was released to the public on October 10, 2012. In this Brief, Dr. Aria Nakissa takes a closer look at the concept of Wasaṭism, an important component of the Muslim Brotherhood’s orientation toward implementing Sharia, and considers how this approach has found expression in the drafting of Egypt’s post-revolutionary constitution. He concludes by stating that differences of opinion which have surfaced with regard to the constitution — between the Islamists and the secular-oriented politicians — indicate the types of struggles likely to characterize Egypt’s post-revolutionary political landscape.

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Aria Nakissa, Junior Research Fellow at the Crown Center and has a Ph.D. in Anthropology and Middle Eastern Studies from Harvard University.

Middle East Brief 67 (Summary) — While out of power, Islamic political movements in Egypt and Tunisia frequently criticized the economic policies of secular Arab regimes and put forth ideas on how they would combat poverty, inequality, and corruption. Now that they are in power, these movements will have the opportunity to implement their ideas. In this Brief, Prof. Nader Habibi analyzes the economic programs and policies that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and the Ennahdha Islamists in Tunisia proposed during their recent political campaigns, along with the policies and programs that they are likely to implement in practice. In doing so, he identifies three important factors that will influence their final economic policy choices: 1) the current economic challenges; 2) Islamic principles on economics and commerce that have influenced their proposals; and 3) the relative influence of socioeconomic interest groups in the formulation and implementation of these Islamic parties’ economic platforms.

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Nader Habibi, Henry J. Leir Professor of the Economics of the Middle East at the Crown Center, Brandeis University.

Middle East Brief 66 (Summary) — For years, Middle East specialists have debated the compatibility of Islamist politics and democracy in the Arab world. In Tunisia, the small country that sparked the Arab Spring, the victory of the Islamist Ennahdha party in last year’s parliamentary election has created an opportunity to examine the relationship between Islam and democracy in practice. In this Brief, Sarah J. Feuer analyzes Ennahdha’s governance in relation to three major political pressures acting on the party. She argues that while Ennahdha has demonstrated a commitment to democratic principles such as broad participation in elections and the separation of powers, the party has also pursued policies that would restrict individual rights.

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Sarah J. Feuer, Ph.D. Candidate in Politics at the Crown Center for Middle East Studies, Brandeis University.

Middle East Brief 65 (Summary) — In Iran, the presidential election of June 2013 has already become a hot topic. In this Brief, Prof. Naghmeh Sohrabi lays out three developments that will be evolving in this last year of the Ahmadinejad presidency and that will likely affect the upcoming election: the continuing power struggle over the scope of executive powers; the emergence of the Paydari Front, which supports Ahmadinejad; and the role that the reformists may play in the 2013 presidential election. The Brief concludes by evaluating the likely combined effect of these developments on the 2013 election and by assessing whether, in the context of the powerful role the Supreme Leader plays in Iranian politics, any of these developments really matter.

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Naghmeh Sohrabi, Associate Director for Research at the Crown Center and the Charles (Corky) Goodman Professor of Middle East History at Brandeis.

Middle East Brief 64 (Summary) — The systematic savagery leveled by the Assad regime in Syria against its own citizens has sparked moral outrage and fueled calls for international intervention to stop the slaughter. For an increasing number of analysts this means indirect intervention by providing military and non-military assistance to opposition forces. In this Brief, Prof. Bellin and Prof. Krause argue that a distillation of the historical experience with insurgencies and civil wars, as well as a sober reckoning of conditions on the ground in Syria, make clear that this type of intervention would likely exacerbate the harm that it seeks to eliminate by prolonging the current bloody stalemate. Instead, the authors consider two alternative forms of intervention: choking the regime’s capacity for battle and restructuring the incentives to encourage regime elites to step down.

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Eva Bellin, Myra and Robert Kraft Professor of Arab Politics at the Crown Center and the Department of Politics at Brandeis University.
Peter Krause, Junior Research Fellow at the Crown Center and Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Boston College.

Middle East Brief 63 (Summary) — As the ongoing humanitarian disaster unfolds in Syria, Turkey is increasingly placed in the international hot seat. With strong strategic and economic ties to Syria, the government in Ankara is in a key position to affect Syria’s future. However, so far Turkey has remained cautious, weighing its policy options carefully. In this Brief, Dr. Joshua Walker presents both a historical account of Turkish-Syrian relations and also the current Turkish policy regarding the escalating civil war in Syria. It concludes by laying out two alternative scenarios for Ankara: a limited military intervention in Syria through a buffer zone coupled with covert assistance to the Free Syrian Army; or, a full internationally sanctioned and supported military intervention.

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Joshua W. Walker, a Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund based in Washington, D.C. and was a Junior Research Fellow at the Crown Center in 2010-2011.

Middle East Brief 62 (Summary) — As the tenth anniversary of the landmark visit by then Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer to Iran approaches, Prof. Nader Habibi analyses the evolution of Turkish-Iranian relations over the past decade with emphasis on how these relations have been influenced by international sanctions against Iran. This Brief argues that the growing economic ties between Turkey and Iran increase in geopolitical significance as Western and Middle Eastern countries attempt to influence the course of Iran’s nuclear efforts. Prof. Habibi concludes that economic relations with Turkey will play an important role in how Iran will respond to the latest round of sanctions against its central bank and oil sales.

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Nader Habibi, Henry J. Leir Professor of the Economics of the Middle East at the Crown Center, Brandeis University.

Middle East Brief 61 (Summary) — The leaders and people of Iran have been watching with keen interest the loud debate in the United States and Israel regarding the relative efficacy of different means for preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. However, inside Iran the economic and verbal onslaught has created a public conversation that is quite different. In this Brief, Prof. Farideh Farhi argues that since it is not permissible to advocate temporarily suspending Iran’s enrichment program, the public debate in Iran centers on two other areas of contention: The credibility of an attack on Iran and the possibilities of meaningful negotiations with the United States. She concludes by analyzing the implications of Iran’s internal debate for the future of diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict with Iran over the nuclear issue.

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Farideh Farhi, an independent scholar and Affiliate Graduate Faculty at the University of Hawai’i at Mānoa.

Middle East Brief 60 (Summary) — In recent months, news of Palestinian internal politics has been dominated by the Fatah-Hamas unity deal and the possibilities for its success or failure. In this Brief, Dr. Peter Krause assesses both the unity deal and also a number of other options available to the Palestinian movement. In conclusion he argues that given that no one group is likely to dominate the movement in the short term, multiple strategies amidst division are not necessarily destined for failure.

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Peter Krause, Junior Research Fellow at the Crown Center and Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science, Boston College.

Middle East Brief 59 (Summary) — The closing months of 2011 saw a sharpening of the debate in Israel over the implications of Iran’s nuclear efforts as well as the relative efficacy of different means for preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Given Iran’s geo-strategic position, there is much at stake in the possible acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran, as well as in a military strike to prevent it from obtaining such weapons. This Brief is a clarification of the at times unstructured and polemical Israeli debate on both these issues. It first maps out this crucial debate by identifying some of its main issues, then systematically presents the various and contending arguments made regarding these key issues.

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Prof. Shai Feldman, Judith and Sidney Swartz Director of the Crown Center and Co-Chair of the Crown-Belfer Middle East Project at the Harvard Kennedy School.
Brig. Gen. (ret.) Shlomo Brom, Former Head of Strategic Planning in the IDF’s Planning Branch. He is a Senior Research Associate at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv.
Amb. Shimon Stein, Former Deputy Director General of Israel’s Foreign Ministry and former Israeli Ambassador to Berlin. He is a Senior Research Fellow at INSS.

Middle East Brief 58 (Summary) — How has the Arab Spring affected Palestinian politics? In this Brief, Dr. Khalil Shikaki answers this question by focusing on three important issues: The regional realignment of Fatah and Hamas, their respective approaches to internal Palestinian reconciliation, and the Palestinians’ future relations with Israel. Dr. Shikaki begins by describing the political baseline that prevailed early in 2011. He then ascertains the domestic and regional changes that unfolded in the first half of 2011. He concludes that with no prospects for a return to Palestinian-Israeli negotiations in the next twelve months, Hamas and Fatah will continue to muddle through.

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Khalil Shikaki, the Director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research and a Senior Fellow at the Crown Center.

Middle East Brief 57 (Summary) — In August 2011, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published an unusually controversial assessment of Iran’s economy that projected a relatively positive economic future. In this Brief, Prof. Nader Habibi critically evaluates the main factors that account for the report’s positive assessment and concludes that the IMF forecast underestimates the political and geopolitical threats facing Iran; it also underestimates the adverse effects of governance issues and factional politics on the successful implementation of economic reforms that are crucial for Iran’s economic growth. Nonetheless, Prof. Habibi also argues that while sanctions and domestic political mismanagement will hurt the economy, as long as Iran can avoid a comprehensive oil embargo and a military confrontation with the West, the likelihood of a severe economic collapse remains small.

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Nader Habibi, the Henry J. Leir Professor of the Economics of the Middle East at the Crown Center, Brandeis University.

Middle East Brief 56 (Summary) — In the immediate aftermath of the 2011 Egyptian revolution, a conventional wisdom developed that what is now known as the Arab Spring would only further complicate Arab-Israeli interactions. In this Brief, Dr. Abdel Monem Said Aly and Prof. Shai Feldman examine this conventional wisdom by reviewing the nature of Egyptian-Israeli relations prior to January 2011 to identify the constants that have informed these relations over the past three decades. The Brief then explores the challenges that the revolution has presented to these constants, the manner in which Egypt and Israel have dealt with these difficulties, and the challenges and opportunities that future Egyptian-Israeli interactions will likely face.

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Abdel Monem Said Aly, the President of Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo and a Senior Fellow at the Crown Center.
Shai Feldman, Judith and Sidney Swartz Director of the Crown Center and Co-Chair of the Crown-Belfer Middle East Project at the Harvard Kennedy School.

Middle East Brief 55 (Summary) — In the wake of the dramatic deposing of President Mubarak, a critical tension has emerged in the Egyptian revolution between the forces supporting the continuity of the revolution and those supporting the continuity of the state. In this Brief, Dr. Abdel Monem Said Aly examines the reasons for this tension, namely the particular roots of the revolution and the competing agendas working to affect Egypt’s post-revolution future. It further argues that the interconnection between the state and the revolution will inevitably escalate these tensions in the months and years ahead.

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Abdel Monem Said Aly, the President of Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo and a Senior Fellow at the Crown Center.

Middle East Brief 54 (Summary) — In September 2011, a UN vote on Palestinian independent statehood seems all but certain. In this Middle East Brief, Prof. Shai Feldman looks beyond the upcoming vote and asks what lessons can be learned from the diplomatic failures of the U.S., Israel and Palestinian Authority over the past two and a half years that have led us here. Using these lessons, Prof. Feldman then lays out the conditions required for a more successful future effort to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

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Shai Feldman, Judith and Sidney Swartz Director of the Crown Center for Middle East Studies and Professor of Politics at Brandeis University. He is also a Senior Fellow and a member of the Board of Directors of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs where he serves as co-chair (with former Under-Secretary of State Nicholas Burns) of the Crown-Belfer Middle East Seminar.

Middle East Brief 53 (Summary) — In this Brief, Dr. Naghmeh Sohrabi provides a novel perspective on the current power struggle evolving in Iran between the president, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, and supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and their respective factions. She highlights an important aspect of recent events that has been overlooked by most analyses of these developments: The ways in which the need to contain Ahmadinejad’s efforts to expand executive powers seem to be leading to a realignment of the Supreme Leader with centrist reformist politicians — such as Hashemi Rafsanjani — who had been pushed to the sideline in the aftermath of the dramatic events that followed the 2009 election.

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Naghmeh Sohrabi, Associate Director for Research at the Crown Center. Sohrabi was a postdoctoral fellow at the Crown Center from 2005-2007. She received her Ph.D. in history and Middle East studies from Harvard University in 2005. Her dissertation received an honorable mention from the Foundation for Iranian Studies. Sohrabi is currently under contract with Oxford University Press to publish her book on 19th century Persian travelers to Europe. She has taught courses at Harvard University, Skidmore College, and most recently at Brandeis.

Middle East Brief 52 (Summary) — In the Arab Spring of 2011, Jordan proves to be a case unto itself. It is neither Egypt nor Tunisia where mass protests led to the overthrow of the rulers, nor Syria, Yemen, Libya, or Bahrain where the opposition has been met with brutal repression. In this Brief, Prof. Asher Susser demonstrates that while Jordan has had its share of domestic difficulties, both the regime and the opposition have drawn on a reservoir of moderation. This, he argues, appears to have allowed for a relatively peaceful modus vivendi and for a gradualist, evolutionary approach to reform in place of revolution.

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Asher Susser, Associate Professor of Middle East Studies at Tel Aviv University. Previously, he served four terms as the Director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies. In the years 2007-2008 and 2009-2010, he was a Senior Fellow on the Myra and Robert Kraft Chair in Arab Politics at the Crown Center.

Middle East Brief 51 (Summary) — At a time of radically conflicting interpretations about the direction in which the AK Party is taking Turkey’s foreign policy, Prof. Malik Mufti provides a novel explanation for Turkey’s geopolitical reorientation. In this Brief, Prof. Mufti uses the notion of “Little America” as an expression of Turkey’s emerging bid for regional hegemony: as an actor seeking to project the kind of power—manifested in both its “hard” and May 2011 “soft” variants—wielded by the United States at the global level. In doing so, he provides a framework that goes beyond either the “anti-Western Islamism” or the “integrationist liberalism” that dominates analyses of Turkish foreign policy today.

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Malik Mufti, Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at Tufts University.

Middle East Brief 50 (Summary) — The quick succession of the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia by the fall of Mubarak in Egypt raised the hope that a contagious wave of revolution might soon usher in democratic transition throughout the Middle East. In this Brief, through a close analysis of these two cases, Prof. Eva Bellin suggests a different scenario. She argues that these two uprisings were successful thanks to four key factors that are not easy to replicate in the Arab world as a whole: an emotional trigger, a sense of impunity, a professional military, and new social media. She concludes that while replication may not be easy, success can breed hope and optimism.

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Eva Bellin, Myra and Robert Kraft Professor of Arab Politics at the Crown Center and the Department of Politics.

Middle East Brief 49 (Summary) — Turkey’s new leadership role in the Middle East has been associated with a decade-long increase in economic and diplomatic relations with Arab states. This Brief analyzes the recent transformation in Turkey’s relations with the Arab world by closely studying their economic and geopolitical ties. Through an examination of political, institutional, and commercial forces in Turkey, it suggests that this shift is far more than a simple political agenda of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Rather, it is supported by a broad base of domestic interest groups which have and will demand a durable rapprochement with the Arab world in the coming decades.

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Nader Habibi, Henry J. Leir Professor of the Economics of the Middle East at the Crown Center.
Joshua W. Walker, Junior Research Fellow at the Crown Center and an Assistant Professor of Leadership Studies at the University of Richmond from August 2011.

Middle East Brief 48 (Summary) — The Obama administration’s announcement that it was dropping its efforts to persuade the Israeli government to freeze settlement construction has led to widespread opinion that without a clear plan B, Israeli-Palestinian peace talks are dead. In this Brief, Prof. Shai Feldman analyzes the reasons for the almost two-year long U.S. failure to restart negotiations and the implications of this failure. He argues that in view of this setback the Obama administration needs to press the “reset button” on the negotiations. In the last section, Prof. Feldman elaborates on what such a change in approach would entail, namely the creation of a blueprint for solving the core issues dividing Israel and the Palestinians, fast tracking on borders and security issues, a new and improved Arab Peace Initiative (API), further encouragement of Palestinian state-building, direct and honest communication with U.S. policy makers explaining to key constituencies the rationale for the proposed blueprint, and the creation of a Czar who would oversee all U.S. efforts at Mideast peacemaking.

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Shai Feldman, Judith and Sidney Swartz Director of the Crown Center for Middle East Studies and Professor of Politics at Brandeis University. He is also a Senior Fellow and a member of the Board of Directors of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs where he serves as co-chair (with former Under-Secretary of State Nicholas Burns) of the Crown-Belfer Middle East Seminar. Prof. Feldman is also an Associate Fellow of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London.

Middle East Brief 47 (Summary) — In 2006, in a surprising move, the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan) joined forces with various secular and non-secular opposition groups to form the National Salvation Front (NSF) against the regime of Bashar al-Asad. When the Brotherhood withdrew from the NSF in April 2009, this was read by various commentators as a sign that the Brotherhood’s leadership was steering the movement toward a historic reconciliation with the regime. In this Brief, Dr. Liad Porat contextualizes the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood’s decision to abandon the NSF and demonstrates that the Ikhwan remains committed to toppling and replacing the Asad regime. It thus argues that what occurred in April 2009 constituted a continuation of the Ikhwan’s history in Syria rather than a break with it.

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Liad Porat, Junior Research Fellow at the Crown Center. Porat was a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University from 2009-2010 and he completed his PhD in Middle Eastern history with honors at Haifa University.

Middle East Brief 46 (Summary) — Given the headline-grabbing actions of Turkey this summer with regard to both Israel and Iran, a powerful narrative has emerged in which the West has “lost” Turkey. In this Brief, Dr. Joshua W. Walker argues that this narrative ignores the process of democratization in Turkey and the domestic pressures facing a populist Justice and Development Party (AKP) government. To this end, this Brief evaluates US-Turkish relations by placing the recent tensions in a larger historical context and assesses various points of convergence and divergence in this relationship today.

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Joshua W. Walker, Junior Research Fellow at the Crown Center. He is also a Fellow at the German Marshall Fund and a Research Fellow at the Belfer Center’s International Security Program at Harvard University.

Middle East Brief 66 (Summary) — In June 2010 the United Nations approved a fourth round of sanctions against Iran. One of the most important areas where these sanctions have been effective has been in Iran’s trade with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. In this Brief, Prof. Nader Habibi offers an overview of Iran’s economic ties with its GCC neighbors since 1980 and the ways in which these relations have been affected by the new cooperation of GCC countries with the current round of UN and US sanctions against Iran.

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Nader Habibi, Henry J. Leir Professor of the Economics of the Middle East at Brandeis University and and a senior member of the Crown Center research staff.

Middle East Brief 44 (Summary) — In the Summer of 2009, the Mobilized Resistance Force or Basij was thrown into the limelight when it was used by the Iranian government to crush and eventually control opposition demonstrations. In this Brief, the first of its kind, Dr. Saeid Golkar lays out in detail the Basij’s ideological-political training and its evolution since 1979 as a means to better understand this crucial organization.

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Saeid Golkar, Postdoctoral scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University.

Middle East Brief 66 (Summary) — On June 4, 2010, Seyyed Hassan Khomeini was heckled off the stage by supporters of president Ahmadinejad, in an event commemorating the anniversary of his grandfather’s death, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, founder of the Islamic Republic. Using this incident as a starting point, Dr. Naghmeh Sohrabi examines the ways in which the events following the June 12, 2009 election have fundamentally affected the political landscape of Iran. In her Brief, she focuses on three areas of change: the future of electoral politics in Iran, the dual nature of its political system as a theocracy and a republic, and the efficacy of the Green movement.

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Naghmeh Sohrabi, Assistant Director for Research at the Crown Center. Sohrabi was a postdoctoral fellow at the Crown Center from 2005-2007. She received her PhD in history and Middle East studies from Harvard University in 2005.

Middle East Brief 42 (Summary) — The March 7, 2010 Iraqi elections compare with only one other national Iraqi election in recent times: those of December 2005. The electorate, Prof. Makiya shows, voted in 2010 to weaken sectarian politics and increase the representation of women and minorities, while the political class has proven itself unable to place national interests above narrow party and identity politics. As a result, increasing corruption and patronage politics is undermining the nascent state institutions.

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Kanan Makiya, The Sylvia K. Hassenfeld Professor of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at Brandeis University, Baghdad-born Makiya wrote “Republic of Fear,” which became a bestseller after Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1991.

Middle East Brief 41 (Summary) — Three years after taking control of Gaza, Hamas has established a stable and effective governing system despite a crushing siege and political challenges from Fatah and Salafist groups. In this brief Prof. Sayigh explores both the policies and the fortuitous circumstances that have enabled Hamas to consolidate its control over Gaza and to maintain its domestic legitimacy. The brief further elucidates the complex relationship between Hamas as an armed resistance movement and the government it supports, headed by Prime Minister Ismail Hanieh. Bringing to light the tension between the practical exigencies of governance and its core constituency’s Islamist and militant ideologies, Prof. Sayigh argues that Hamas has demonstrated its ability to innovate and survive. He concludes that the international sanctions policy has created a durable stand-off: Rather than spark mass discontent leading to the collapse of the Hanieh government, it enables Hamas to enhance its ruling party status.

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Yezid Sayigh, Sayigh is Professor of Middle East Studies at King’s College London and a Senior Fellow at the Crown Center from 2009-2010. Previously he was Assistant Director of Studies at the Centre of International Studies, Cambridge University (1994-2003), and headed the Middle East program of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London (1998-2003). In 1990-1994 he was an advisor to and negotiator for the Palestinian delegation to the peace talks with Israel, and since 1999 has provided policy and technical consultancy on the permanent status peace talks and on Palestinian reform.