May 2013 - MEB 73
Can Iran Surprise by Holding a 'Healthy' Election in June?
Seyedamir Hossein Mahdavi
May 2006 - MEB 5
Nuclear Decision-Making in Iran: A Rare Glimpse
The Election of Hassan Rouhani: Essential Crown Center Readings
The election of Hassan Rouhani as Iran's next President in the first round of voting caught many by complete surprise. A former Secretary of the country's Supreme National Security Council and chief nuclear negotiator, Rouhani ran in this election as the preferred candidate of the reformist camp headed by former president Mohammad Khatami and of the pragmatic-centrist camp headed by former president Akhbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. While most analysts assessed the victory of a candidate representing the two camps that are viewed as antagonistic to Iran's Supreme Leader as improbable if not impossible, precisely this outcome was anticipated in a Crown Center Middle East Brief published last month. The Brief, titled "Can Iran Surprise by Holding a 'Healthy' Election in June?" was written by Seyedamir Hossein Mahdavi. In his Brief, Mahdavi analyzed why the coming elections were likely to be healthy and, contrary to the prevailing views, argued that "the one group that can hope to win in a competitive election is the reformists." The full text of the Brief sheds light on how this result came about.
The possible implications of Hassan Rouhani's election for the critically important issue of Iran's nuclear efforts and the country's interactions with the international community regarding this subject will now become the center of considerable commentary. The potential importance of this issue was anticipated by our center over seven years ago when we published a Brief titled "Nuclear Decision-Making in Iran: A Rare Glimpse." The Brief, analyzing Rouhani's criticism of those who succeeded him as Iran's nuclear negotiators, was written by Dr. Chen Kane, currently a Senior Research Associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. The full text of the Brief is avialable here.