How will Turkey’s failed coup and massive purge affect its economic future?


The Conversation - July 27, 2016

Nader Habibi is the Henry J. Leir Professor of the Economics of the Middle East at the Crown Center.

The failed July 15 coup in Turkey has prompted a tsunami of responses by the government that is likely to have a lasting impact on all aspects of politics and society, including the economy.

The initial arrest of military personnel who were involved or suspected of participating in the coup did not come as a shock. The next phase did, however, as massive waves of arrests and suspensions in the judiciary and government bureaucracy followed, as well as a declaration of emergency presidential powers. As of July 23, nearly 45,000 government employees have been suspended and close to 10,000 people have been detained. According to Deputy Prime Minister Nurettin Canikly, thousands more are likely to be purged in the coming weeks.

While most analysts have focused on the political and security consequences of the attempted takeover and the Erdogan government’s reaction, it is equally important to examine their impact on Turkey’s troubled economy. And that will depend most on how widespread the purge will be and whether any economic policies will change significantly.

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